Finally, some good news for Republicans from Rasmusssen (5/28, likely voters):
Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 47
John Kennedy (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Some folks might remember a previous Rasmussen poll that purported to show Landrieu leading by a 55-39 margin. The only problem? That poll didn’t actually exist. Its findings were posted erroneously by Rasmussen and actually represented a Virginia Senate poll with the wrong labels attached to them.
Of all the public polls of this race that we’ve seen, only the one conducted by Southern Media & Opinion Research showed Landrieu with a significant lead (50%-38%).
There’s no breathing easy in Louisiana yet.
Bonus finding: The same round of polling shows McCain leading Obama by 50-41 in the state.
A ray of sunshine in a thunderstorm.
I’m sure this will be a tight race all the way to election day, but I have a feeling 3 points is about what she’ll win by. Higher an normal black turnout du to Obama being on the ballot should put Landrieu over the top. And I’m not sure conservatives will be all that excited to rally around a guy who was a democrat until a year ago.
Kennedy just got reelected in 2007 as Treasurer. Probably had his name around all over the place, maybe on tv a little. It’s as if he got done with an ad buy. Since Landreiu has a solid money advantage, I’m not worried.
You guys should be more careful about your facts
It all comes down to how much the GOP is will to throw into the race. If they come in with $10 million, they can win here. If the focus more on defense, they will lose here, but might win in other close races.
Kennedy has won statewide races before, so it is unlikely that he is well back in name recognition. And the contested primary will hurt him with Republicans while Landrieu will be able to paint him as a flip=flopper for switching parties.
Not only that, but with Obama polling well, he will be able to campaign here to raise her profile even more.
The poll shows McSame with only 50% of the vote against a black man? After Bush 57%/Kerry 43% in ’04? That ain’t bad at all.
Electoral Projection shows Alaska giving McSame 49.5% and Obama 41.5% and you can get Kos and others wondering if Alaska will end up in play. And it shows Mississippi with 54% to Obama’s 39% and you got folks figuring we can win that state. At this point in this election I’m very pleased to see 41% of Louisiana voters ready to go for Obama and the Democrats.
CLEARLY SSP is not at fault in posting the original poll from Rasmussen! That should be obvious. One can legitimally ask about the ACCURACY of the polling from a variety of angles. But one must assume that a polling outfit is competent enough to post the numbers that it actually found about a given race.
No one has mentioned, however, the question about Rasmussen organization. Obviously this gaffe doesn’t exactly encourage one to have confidence in the Ras organization itself. I do often wonder about the accuracy of its polling (altho the misposting of the results is, as far as I know, a first.) Clearly the quality of polling differs from one organization to another.
I’ve often read that SUSA does the most accurate polling. I’ve also heard Mason-Dixon praised. I would be interested to read a more general discussion about the accuracy among the various organizations.